recovery after the Great Recession …

model with endogenously determined policy credibility and an effective lower bound is developed for forecasting and policy …

improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The …

1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from … other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession … years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …

: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in …