This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity-credit …--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals …

Crisis of 2008-09 …

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential … policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) - the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one … warning of banking crises. However, for a number of European countries this indicator implausibly suggests that credit should …

relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved NPLs-and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning … approach identifies a set of pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems related to weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and … banking sector conditions. Our findings suggest that reducing pre-crisis vulnerabilities and promptly addressing NPL problems …

Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom … carries risks. International experience suggests that China's credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing … risks of a disruptive adjustment and/or a marked growth slowdown. Several China-specific factors-high savings, current …

One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and … mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a … output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions …

This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after … the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007-08. Sluggish … productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced …

balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit … vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans … cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of both the pre-crisis …