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Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397807
effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. It then uses Bayesian estimation techniques for the U.S., Canada, Japan, U.K., and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667511
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252077
In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395270
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of demographic features into the model. The analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300678
We study, both empirically and quantitatively, the role of savings and the labor supply in self-insurance channels over the life cycle when one faces not only idiosyncratic income risks, but also changes in longevity risk and pension benefits. We pick China as a case study since China has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009609
This paper documents recent labor market performance in the Latin American region. The paper shows that unemployment, informality, and inequality have been falling over the past two decades, though still remain high. By contrast, productivity has remained stubbornly low. The paper, then, turns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102140
This paper analyzes the potential risks and vulnerabilities of non-financial corporates in Latin America and Canada. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705669
Chile, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and five European countries. Overall, Chile''s pass-through does …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399635
The United Kingdom allowed workers from the ten new European Union member countries immediate access to its labor market after the accession in 2004. This paper uses a general equilibrium framework to explore the dynamic adjustment of the UK economy to the postaccession surge in immigration....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400579