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Initial output losses from the Covid-19 pandemic : robust determinants
Furceri, Davide; Ganslmeier, Michael; Ostry, Jonathan David - 2021
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517923
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Hysteresis and business cycles
Cerra, Valerie; Fatás, Antonio; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - 2020
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
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Financial amplification of labor supply shocks
Biljanovska, Nina; Vardoulakis, Alexandros P. - 2020
/subsidy and a labor tax/subsidy. Labor shocks, such as the COVID-19 shock, amplify the policy responses, which critically depend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302066
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Global corporate stress tests : impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses
Tressel, Thierry; Ding, Xiaodan - 2021
find that a large share of publicly-listed firms become vulnerable as a result of the pandemic shock and additional … the impact of the shock in the near term. Looking forward, while interest coverage ratios tend to improve over time after … the initial shock as earnings recover in line with projected macroeconomic conditions, liquidity needs remain substantial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605125
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Facing the global financial cycle : what role for policy responses?
Batini, Nicoletta; Durand, Luigi - 2021
Abstract In this paper we ask whether countries can influence their exposure to changes in global financial conditions. Specifically, we show that even though we can model cross-country capital flows via a global factor that closely tracks changes in global financial conditions, there is a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518283
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Oil prices and inflation dynamics : evidence from advanced and developing economies
Choi, Sangyup; Furceri, Davide; Loungani, Prakash; … - 2017
We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced … and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation … increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011742791
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Social repercussions of pandemics
Barrett, Philip; Chen, Sophia - 2021
Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517929
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Defying the odds : remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic
Kpodar, Kangni; Mlachila, Montfort; Quayyum, Saad; … - 2021
This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605630
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Corporate sector resilience in India in the wake of the COVID-19 shock
Górnicka, Lucyna; Ogawa, Sumiko; Xu, TengTeng - 2021
To assess the resilience of India's corporate sector against COVID-19-related shocks, we conducted a series of stress tests using firm-level corporate balance sheet data. The results reveal a differential impact across sectors, with the most severe impact on contact-intensive services,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795139
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A TIP against the COVID-19 pandemic
Chérif, Réda; Hasanov, Fuad - 2020
A universal testing and isolation policy is the most viable way to vanquish a pandemic. Its implementation requires: (i) an epidemiological rather than clinical approach to testing, sacrificing accuracy for scalability, convenience and speed; and (ii) state intervention to ramp up production,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252486