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The behavior of equity prices is analyzed in a general equilibrium model where agents have preferences not only over consumption but also (implicitly) over their beliefs. To alleviate cognitive dissonance, investors endogenously choose to ignore information that conflicts too much with their ex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400540
Policymakers often express concern that herding by financial market participants destabilizes markets and increases the fragility of the financial system. This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It addresses the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399902
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326
IFC as the debt bias would shrink. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong … electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the … bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers' competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799662
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009486263
The correlation bias refers to the fact that claim subordination in the capital structure of the firm influences claim … shown that the correlation bias shifts shareholder preferences towards highly correlated assets, making financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401318
This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in …) asymptotically, the heterogeneity bias of the FE may be more or less severe in VAR specifications than in standard dynamic panel data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403829
We analyze a unique data set and uncover a remarkable result that casts a new light on the home bias phenomenon. The … play an important role in equity home bias and that the benefits of international risk sharing are limited to select firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403970
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395983
show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667445