Similar Search Results

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area

Lombardi, Marco - 2009

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402234

Desynchronized : The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC

Cevik, Serhan - 2011

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and … a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization … heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397084

The impact of r-g on the Euro-Area government spending multiplier

Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni - 2021

We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518304

The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound

Amendola, Adalgiso; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; … - 2019

We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102056

Foreign Entanglements : Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Bayoumi, Tamim - 2007

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400326

Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis : What a Difference a Year Makes

Swiston, Andrew - 2010

This paper investigates Central America''s external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008-09 global recession. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402729

Hong Kong’s growth synchronization with China and the U.S. : a trend and cycle analysis

He, Dong; Liao, Wei; Wu, Tommy - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281166

Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S : A Trend and Cycle Analysis

He, Dong - 2015

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong SAR’s economic growth with mainland China and the United …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412129

The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2015

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835

Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia

Ayvazyan, Knarik - 2015

Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenian economic activity is strongly influenced by global demand shocks and changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418027

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last