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conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying … ""conflict process"" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became … disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399713
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after … conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset …. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252077
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability … whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of … associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251282
We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299337
Post conflict aid is different from conventional development aid and has different effects on the recipient economy …. The paper builds a theoretical model tailored around the main stylized facts of post conflict aid and traces the impact of … different kinds of post-conflict aid on capital accumulation, growth, welfare, and resource allocation. While both humanitarian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399545
social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms … of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is … significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors (""luck"") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399235
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009747230
This paper presents and then tests a political economy model to analyze the observed positive relationship between income inequality and inflation. The model''s key features are unequal access to both inflation-hedging opportunities and the political process. The model predicts that inequality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401876
neoclassical growth model. The principal idea is that greater fractionalization, proxying for the degree of conflict in society …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399951
The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395251