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An evaluation of World Economic Outlook growth forecasts - 2004-17

Celasun, Oya; Lee, Jungjin; Mrkaic, Mico; Timmermann, Allan - 2021

This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796831

Predicting recessions : a new approach for identifying leading indicators and forecast combinations

Baba, Chikako; Kıṣınbay, Turgut - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422676

Predicting Recessions : A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations

Kisinbay, Turgut - 2011

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398165

How well do economists forecast recessions?

An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash - 2018

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? : An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Ball, Laurence M. - 2014

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014394299

A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations : Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models

Barrionuevo, José M. - 1992

the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series … models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series … model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396084

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Crowe, Christopher W. - 2010

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399212

Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Leigh, Daniel - 2002

Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401315

Deus ex machina? : a framework for macro forecasting with machine learning

Bolhuis, Marijn A.; Rayner, Brett - 2020

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251288

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

Matheson, Troy - 2011

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402359

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