Showing 1 - 10 of 457
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for … commodity-exporting countries. The introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare … through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402269
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395958
This paper builds on the ARCH approach for modeling distributions with time-varying conditional variance by using the generalized Student t distribution. The distribution offers flexibility in modeling both leptokurtosis and asymmetry (characteristics seen in high-frequency financial time series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400775
frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as … uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity … spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402681
(RBA) have had on the level and volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. First, using an event study we evaluate … Australian dollar. Second, we investigate the effects of RBA intervention policies on exchange rate volatility over the floating … volatility, which suggests that official intervention may have added to market uncertainty. Overall, the effects of RBA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403823
During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian … increase in mature market equity volatility generated an exchange rate depreciation of up to 1⁄2 percent. This sensitivity rose …"" volatility in forex markets. Long-run forex volatility declined as Asian economies settled down with generally stronger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401382
This paper, using T-GARCH models, finds that the United States has been the major source of price and volatility … ""stock market correction"" period. There is also evidence of structural breaks in the stock price and volatility dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399563
Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399678
Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number … of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results … indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be potentially useful in assessing financial soundness. Daily data are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399985
explore this question by comparing long-run volatility trends in CEE currencies and the euro. We find that these trends are … euro. Spillovers of volatility across regional markets appear to have diminished over time, with the exception of the … Hungarian forint, which remains a source of volatility shocks to regional currencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404235