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Machine learning and causality : the impact of financial crises on growth

Tiffin, Andrew - 2019

Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154563

Individual treatment effects of budget balance rules

Caselli, Francesca; Stoehlker, Daniel; Wingender, Philippe - 2020

This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Method. Our results indicate that countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485989

Empirical Modeling of Contagion : A Review of Methodologies

Dungey, Mardi - 2004

The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial market crises. This paper reviews those methods and shows how they are related in a unified framework. A number of extensions are also suggested that allow for multivariate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401432

The Impact of the Global Crisison Canada : What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

Duttagupta, Rupa - 2010

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of … conditions explain one-third of the total variability in Canada''s real GDP growth, although changes in U.S. real GDP growth …''s impulse responses shows that U.S. real GDP growth and lending standards will increasingly bear on Canada''s growth, implying …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402887

Populism and civil society

Boeri, Tito; Mishra, Prachi; Papageorgiou, Chris; … - 2018

Populists claim to be the only legitimate representative of the people. Does it mean that there is no space for civil society? The issue is important because since Tocqueville (1835), associations and civil society have been recognized as a key factor in a healthy liberal democracy. We ask two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978365

A Party without a Hangover? : On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits

Laxton, Douglas - 2007

This paper develops a 2-country New Keynesian overlapping generations model suitable for the joint evaluation of monetary and fiscal policies. We show that a permanent increase in U.S. government deficits raises the world real interest rate and significantly increases U.S. current account...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401072

Do fiscal rules cause fiscal discipline over the electoral cycle?

Eklou, Kodjovi M.; Joanis, Marcelin - 2019

. We find that in election years with fiscal rules in place, public consumption is reduced by 1.6 percentage point of GDP … as compared to election years without these rules. This impact is equivalent to a reduction by a third of the volatility …