Showing 1 - 10 of 1,888
We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism … their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300643
volatility in determining a firm's debt currency composition, among other channels. Furthermore, the effect of exchange rate … volatility becomes statistically insignificant beyond an estimated threshold credit-to-GDP ratio of 100 percent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102196
This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry … appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that the relationship between trade openness and overall … volatility is positive and economically significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401281
fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To … multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories … matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398636
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399713
This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing … risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since our methodology focuses on identifying … cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402821
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001500
This paper analyzes the effects of selected structural reforms on output and employment in the short and medium term. It uses a comprehensive cross-country firm-level dataset covering both advanced and emerging market economies over the period 2003-2014. In line with previous studies, it finds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848233
This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare 7 OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to 13 that did not. After the early 1990s, performance improved along...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400142