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Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices
Kumar, Manmohan S. - 1991
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395895
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The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835
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Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
Rebei, Nooman; Sbia, Rashid - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251290
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Rethinking fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries
Mirzoev, Tokhir; Zhu, Ling - 2019
point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021900
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Macroeconomic effects of reforms on three diverse oil exporters : Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK
Beidas-Strom, Samya; Lorusso, Marco - 2019
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112123
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Fiscal Surveillance in a Petro Zone : The Case of the CEMAC
Wiegand, Johannes - 2004
This paper discusses fiscal surveillance criteria for the countries of the Central African Monetary and Economic Union (CEMAC), most of which depend heavily on oil exports. At present, the CEMAC''s macroeconomic surveillance exercise sets as fiscal target a floor on the basic budgetary balance....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404131
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Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?
Beckers, Benjamin - 2015
We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418039
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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675
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Parametric Distributional Flexibility and Conditional Variance Models with An Application to Hourly Exchange Rates
Lye, Jenny N. - 1998
This paper builds on the ARCH approach for modeling distributions with time-varying conditional variance by using the generalized Student t distribution. The distribution offers flexibility in modeling both leptokurtosis and asymmetry (characteristics seen in high-frequency financial time series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400775
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What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?
Roache, Shaun K. - 2010
frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as … uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity … spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402681