All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...

We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the performance of commodity-exporting countries in terms of macroeconomic stability and economic growth in a panel of up to 129 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main findings are threefold. First, we find that overall government...

This paper investigates the dynamic impact of natural resource discoveries on government debt sustainability. We use a 'natural experiment' framework in which the timing of discoveries is treated as an exogenous source of within-country variation. We combine data on government debt, fiscal...

This paper continues the study of optimal fiscal policy in a growing economy by exploring a case in which the government simultaneously provides three main categories of expenditures with distortionary tax finance: public production services, public consumption services, and state-contingent...

The search for ways to ensure growth while accommodating necessary expenditure cuts to correct fiscal imbalances, has often led to the advocacy of the government own savings (GOS) measure as an indicator of growth potential in fiscal adjustment. This paper critically examines the rationale of...

This paper discusses in a systematic and comprehensive way the existing literature on the relationship between the growth of countries’ economies and various public finance instruments, such as tax policy, expenditure policy, and overall budgetary policy, from the perspectives of allocative...

This paper develops indices of fiscal transparency for a broad range of countries based on the IMF''s Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency, using data derived from published fiscal transparency modules of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs). The indices covers...

This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance

International coordination of macroeconomic policies has attracted much attention in recent years. The main issue has been whether economic performance can be improved by coordination Although it is still a controversial issue many economists have argued that coordination would make a positive...