Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with...

The present paper develops a one-sector aggregate endogenous growth model with intertemporal preference dependence. The resultant model possesses the fundamental property of growth convergence, in the sense that countries with identical parameters regarding technology, preference, and government...

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...