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A unified model of cohort mortality for economic analysis
Lleras-Muney, Adriana; Moreau, Flavien - 2021
We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model … provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model … mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518293
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The cyclicality of sales, regular and effective prices : business cycle and policy implications
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Hong, Gee Hee - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621650
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Managing macrofinancial risk
Adrian, Tobias; Vitek, Francis - 2020
We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism, to support the joint analysis of monetary and macroprudential policy. This state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity mechanism specifies the conditional variances of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300643
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The costs of macroprudential deleveraging in a liquidity trap
Chen, Jiaqian; Finocchiaro, Daria; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2020
We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251966
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Exploring the output effect of fiscal policy shocks in low income countries
Honda, Jiro; Miyamoto, Hiroaki; Taniguchi, Mina - 2020
statistically significant output effect under floating exchange rate regimes. For the estimation of the output effects of fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252736
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The negative mean output gap
Aiyar, Shekhar; Voigts, Simon - 2019
the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632
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How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?
Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
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Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts
Bluedorn, John Christopher; Leigh, Daniel - 2019
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008
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Measuring output gap : is it worth your Time?
Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna - 2020
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152
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Labor market dynamics : a hidden Markov approach
Shibata, Ippei - 2019
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155058