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Banking Crises and Crisis Dating : Theory and Evidence
Loukoianova, Elena - 2009
information on government actions undertaken in response to bank distress. Weformulate a simple theoretical model of a banking … industry which we use to identify and constructtheory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). Using both country … have appeared in the literature. Therefore, BC indicatorsactually measure lagged government responses to systemic bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402481
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Structural quarterly projection model for Belarus
Musil, Karel; Pranovich, Mikhail; Vlček, Jan - 2018
Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978426
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Overfitting in judgment-based economic forecasts : the case of IMF growth projections
Hellwig, Klaus-Peter - 2018
I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978442
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In search of information : use of Google trends' data to narrow information gaps for low-income developing countries
Narita, Futoshi; Yin, Rujun - 2018
Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends' data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978712
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The present value of corporate profits : a forecasters’ survey perspective
Andrle, Michal - 2019
This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001557
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How to improve inflation forecasting in Canada
Matheson, Troy - 2019
-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103690
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A global projection model for euro area large economies
Jakab, M. Zoltán; Lukyantsau, Pavel; Wang, Shengzu - 2015
The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281922
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Machine learning and causality : the impact of financial crises on growth
Tiffin, Andrew - 2019
Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154563
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Achieving the Bank of Japan's inflation target
Anand, Rahul; Hong, Gee Hee; Hul, Yaroslav - 2019
The Bank of Japan has introduced various unconventional monetary policy tools since the launch of Abenomics in 2013, to … analysis (FPAS) for Japan. In the model's baseline scenario, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan reaching its 2 percent … central bank credibility increases this likelihood, and would require less accommodative macroeconomic policies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154577
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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675