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Demographic transition and pension reforms : adding demographics to GIMF
Carton, Benjamin; Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio; Hunt, … - 2020
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of demographic features into the model. The analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300678
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China’s Demography and its Implications
Lee, Il Houng - 2013
In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395270
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COVID-19 in Latin America : a high toll on lives and livelihoods
Bakker, Bas B.; Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo Soares - 2021
Latin America was hit hard by Covid-19, both in terms of lives and livelihoods. Early lockdowns in the second quarter of 2020 prevented an explosion of deaths at the time but did not stop the pandemic from later wreaking havoc in the region. This paper investigates the dynamics of pandemics in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610772
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Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century
Cheng, Kevin C. - 2003
general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility … mobility is high in China, a low fertility rate implies more future capital outflows. But if capital is less mobile, low … fertility today lowers the domestic return to capital and raises the domestic return to labor. In addition, the paper finds no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404019
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Korea's growth prospects : overcoming demographics and COVID-19
Swiston, Andrew - 2021
Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604751
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Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution
Chamon, Marcos - 2006
This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries'' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404231
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Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth
Sarel, Michael - 1994
This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. First, it develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Second, it uses macroeconomic and demographic data to estimate the relative productivity of different age...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395876
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Financial crises, investment slumps, and slow recoveries
Cerra, Valerie; Hakamada, Mai; Lama C., Ruy - 2021
One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610732
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Hysteresis and business cycles
Cerra, Valerie; Fatás, Antonio; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - 2020
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
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The global economic recovery 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis
Chen, Wenjie; Mrkaic, Mico; Nabar, Malhar - 2019
This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007-08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019853