Similar Search Results

How well do economists forecast recessions?

An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash - 2018

-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326

The political economy of fiscal transparency and independent fiscal councils

Beetsma, Roel; Debrun, Xavier; Sloof, Randolph - 2017

IFC as the debt bias would shrink. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong … electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the … bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers' competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799662

Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession

Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675

Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty

Ozturk, Ezgi O.; Sheng, Xuguang - 2017

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011748782

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology

Phillips, Steven T.; Catão, Luis; Ricci, Luca Antonio; … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389823

External liabilities and crises

Catão, Luis; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756807

Are Currency Crises Predictable? : A Test

Pattillo, Catherine A. - 1998

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400560

Are Currency Crises Predictable?

Valdés, Rodrigo O. - 1997

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403309

Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe

Brooks, Robin - 2000

world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403503

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Phillips, Steven - 2014

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014394379

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