This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through in Singapore using band-pass spectral regression techniques, allowing for asymmetric effects over the business cycle. First stage pass-through is estimated to be complete and relatively quick, confirming existing views that the exchange rate...

This paper develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate. It then uses the model to test whether there has been a structural break in consumption behavior because of the 2008 financial crisis. Before the crisis, the personal saving rate was...

This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia''s classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of...

This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a...