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The U.S. Dollar and the Trade Deficit : What Accounts for the Late 1990's?
Hunt, Ben - 2003
between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the … second half of the 1990s. The paper concludes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect of such a productivity shock is only part of … the story. A second shock, a broadly defined “risk premium” shock, and some uncertainty about the persistence of both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399692
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In which exchange rate models do forecasters trust?
Hauner, David; Yi, Chae-u; Takizawa, Hajime - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009425653
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The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country : Algeria's Experience
Koranchelian, Taline - 2005
Drawing on the existing literature, I estimate a long-run equilibrium real exchange rate path for Algeria. I find that the Balassa-Samuelson effect together with real oil prices explain the long-run evolution of the equilibrium real exchange rate in Algeria. The half-life of the deviation of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400622
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In Which Exchange Rate Models Do Forecasters Trust?
Lee, Jaewoo - 2011
Using survey data of market expectations, we ask which popular exchange rate models appear to be consistent with expectation formation of market forecasters. Exchange rate expectations are found to be correlated with inflation differentials and productivity differentials, indicating that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399410
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Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? : The Case of Sweden
Thomas, Alun H. - 1997
This paper uses a structural vector autoregression representation of the Mundell-Flemming model to analyze the determinants of movements in Sweden’s real exchange rate. It finds that, while (supply and demand) shocks account for over 60 percent of the forecast error variance, comparable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403334
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Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks : Evidence From a Panel of 14 Countries
Johnston, Louis Dorrance - 1997
We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and government spending for 14 OECD countries, using recently developed panel cointegration tests. The results indicate that under certain assumptions it is easier to detect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401799
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Labor Productivity and Real Exchange Rate : The Balassa-Samuelson Disconnect in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Loko, Boileau - 2005
This paper seeks to investigate the transmission mechanisms linking productivity to the real exchange rate in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. At first glance, the stylized facts-low labor productivity growth and a trend real depreciation-suggest that a Balassa- Samuelson effect is in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400846
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Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries
International Monetary Fund - 2001
Several transition countries have experienced strong real exchange rate appreciations. This paper tests the hypothesis that these appreciations reflect underlying productivity gains in the tradable sector. Using panel data over the period 1993-98, the results show clear evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403602
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Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals : A Cross-Country Perspective
Ricci, Luca Antonio - 2008
This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401826
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Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation : The Case of Slovakia
Oomes, Nienke - 2005
This paper evaluates competitiveness in Slovakia and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the koruna. Slovak wages and prices are found to have been relatively low even when adjusted for differences in relative income and productivity, suggesting an undervalued real exchange rate....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401881