This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) improves on univariate methods as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter …

Identifying determinants of the output-inflation tradeoff has long been a key issue in business cycle research. We … provide evidence that in countries with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is … Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Estimates of the output-inflation tradeoff are taken from previous studies, viz., Lucas …

Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the … Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively … the importance of monetary policy, predicting that a permanently low growth and low inflation environment would …

the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well …, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by … about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …