This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of … have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content … from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms …

countries less accurate than a naive forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a …

documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most … terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth … and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios …

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country … negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast … revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO …

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how … models to predict real output growth with lower forecast errors than traditional models. By combining multiple machine … learning models into ensembles, we lower forecast errors even further. We also identify measures of variable importance to help …