This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting...

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with...

The way central banks manage their foreign reserve assets has evolved over the past decades. One major trend is managing reserves in two or more tranches-liquidity tranche and investment tranche-especially for those with adequate reserves. Incorporating reserve tranching, we have developed in...

When constructing hedged interest rate arbitrage portfolios for basket currencies, two issues arise: first, how are the unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk—in terms of the conditional variance of expected profits from the...

This paper models the idiosyncratic or asset-specific return of an asset as the return on a portfolio that is long in that asset and short in other assets in the same class, thereby removing the common components of returns. This is the type of “hedged” position that is held by...

This paper analyzes the role of nonseparable utility and nontradables in business cycles and portfolio choice. I find that nonseparability in utility can change the portfolio choice significantly. Unlike previous results in literature, the optimal portfolio of the traded-good sector equities is...

As is well known, most models of credit risk have failed to measure the credit risks in the context of the global financial crisis. In this context, financial industry representatives, regulators and academics worldwide have given new impetus to efforts to improve credit risk modeling for...

We study a banking model in which banks invest in a riskless asset and compete in both deposit and risky loan markets. The model predicts that as competition increases, both loans and assets increase; however, the effect on the loans-to-assets ratio is ambiguous. Similarly, as competition...