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Syria's conflict economy
Gobat, Jeanne; Kostial, Kristina - 2016
Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria's economy and its people have been … set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria's GDP today is less than half of … what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711573
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The Impact of Oil-Related Incomeon the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria
Dridi, Jemma - 2008
exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and … of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401744
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A global projection model for euro area large economies
Jakab, M. Zoltán; Lukyantsau, Pavel; Wang, Shengzu - 2015
The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281922
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r-g<0 : can we sleep more soundly?
Mauro, Paolo; Zhou, Jing - 2020
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251299
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Financial and business cycles in Brazil
Krznar, Ivo; Matheson, Troy - 2017
This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011716460
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A model to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises
Basu, Suman S.; Chamon, Marcos; Crowe, Christopher - 2017
This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809589
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Estimation and out-of-sample prediction of sudden stops : do regions of emerging markets behave differently from each other?
Comelli, Fabio - 2015
We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374759
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Trade Policy with Heterogeneous Traders : Do Quotas Get a Bum Rap?
Krishna, Kala - 2007
This paper considers the effects of trade policy-tariffs and quotas-when importing is done by competitive traders who are identical ex ante but differ ex post. We show that the standard equivalence results no longer hold and the conventional ranking of tariffs and quotas is turned on its head:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399634
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Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)
Liu, Kexue - 2006
The paper presents the basic Credit Risk+ model, and proposes some modifications. This model could be useful in the stress-testing financial sector assessments process as a benchmark for credit risk evaluations. First, we present the setting and basic definitions common to all the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399884
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Spillovers from the maturing of China's economy
Dizioli, Allan; Hunt, Benjamin F.; Maliszewski, Wojciech - 2016
China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715554