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incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on private savings behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in … savings and, other things equal, the larger is the current account surplus. Empirical support for the model is found using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396005
This paper studies the dynamics of external accounts during 278 economic recession events in the past 60 years and sheds light on key factors that shape these patterns. Economic recessions trigger highly-persistent increases in the current account, driven by an initial, sharp decline in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605536
-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where … countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978549
, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the … role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of … the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402572
The macroeconomic implications of a pension reform that substitutes a high-return fully-funded system for a low-return pay-as-you-go system are discussed in an overlapping generations, neoclassical growth model. With forward-looking individuals, a debt-financed reform worsens the current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403806
relationship between total regional saving and investment is significantly negative in Canada and the United Kingdom, in contrast … is negative in Canada which suggests that capital is mobile for individuals. The relationship between retained earnings … and private investment is significantly positive in the U.K. and Canada suggesting capital immobility for firms but a test …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398181
economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399958
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009726282
This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395348
lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a … panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings … precautionary savings motive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396946