This paper proposes a methodology for analyzing dynamic misalignment in managed exchange rate systems that combines the estimation approach to modeling the real exchange rate with the calibration approach to generating the equilibrium real exchange rate. The methodology is applied to the Thai...

The time-series properties of real exchange rates, on a number of definitions, for 22 industrial countries during 1979-95 were used to re-examine whether PPP holds. It is shown that if real exchange rates reverted to a constant mean slowly, say by five percent a month, then at standard levels of...

We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates, by comparing the unit root properties of a group of international real exchange rates with two groups of intra-national real exchange rates. Strikingly, we find that while the international real rates taken as a group appear...

Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar''s real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of...

In this paper we develop and test a model of a utility maximizing representative agent operating in the Belgium-Luxembourg two-tier foreign exchange market. Our tests examine and fail to reject a risk neutral representative agent utility function. When we combine a risk neutral utility function...

The paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical developments in the analysis of informal currency markets in developing countries. The basic characteristics of these markets are highlighted, and alternative analytical models to explain them are discussed. The implications for exchange rate...

This paper constructs and analyzes an optimizing model of dual exchange markets which are incompletely separated owing to the presence of fraudulent cross transactions. The model is used to examine the implications of certain shocks, including devaluation. Devaluation first leads to the...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...