This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence … relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in …, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that …

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and … affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin … hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an …