Showing 1 - 10 of 1,236
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715551
The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809581
Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in domestic currency and borrowing in foreign. Thus, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rates. We argue that when asset markets are incomplete, nominal exchange rate exposure allows countries to partially insure against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781285
Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that there was no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, our novel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) shows interesting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803988
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799668
component provide evidence of a “world business cycle” and a distinct European common component. The results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400869
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401282
This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession …. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402708
This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world … simultaneously, our framework delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of nearly 3. Thus, demand alone can account for 70 percent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402796