Showing 1 - 10 of 1,547
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326
show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667445
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392484
This paper argues that better governance practices can reduce the costs, risks and uncertainty of financial intermediation. Our sample covers high-, middle- and low-income countries before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that net interest margins of banks are lower if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978660
This paper develops and tests two efficiency wage models of corruption in the civil service. Under fair wage models …, civil service wages are an important determinant of corruption. Under shirking models, the level of wages is of secondary … importance, as potential bribes dwarf wage income. The empirical evidence points to a negative relationship between corruption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400303
This paper examines the reasons why corruption and policy distortions tend to exhibit a high degree of persistence in … eliminate corruption. The analysis predicts that in politically unstable regimes, the institutions necessary to monitor and … enforce compliance are weak. In such countries, corruption is more pervasive and the compliance with regulations is low. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400451
Corruption is attracting a lot of attention around the world. The paper surveys and discusses issues related to the … causes, consequences, and scope of corruption and possible corrective actions. It emphasizes the costs of corruption in terms … of economic growth. It also emphasizes that the fight against corruption may not be cheap and cannot be independent from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400769
The paper discusses some channels through which corruption affects growth such as the impact of corruption on … enterprises, on the allocation of talent, and on investment. It also discusses the impact of corruption on some aspects of public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403515
Corruption, particularly political or “grand” corruption, distorts the entire decision-making process connected with … shows that higher corruption is associated with (i) higher public investment; (ii) lower government revenues; (iii) lower … corruption increases public investment while reducing its productivity. These are five channels through which corruption lowers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401205
There is increasing recognition that corruption has substantial, adverse effects on economic growth. But if the costs … of corruption are so high, why don’t countries strive to improve their institutions and root out corruption? Why do many … countries appear to be stuck in a vicious circle of widespread corruption and low economic growth, often accompanied by ever …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399729