Showing 1 - 10 of 1,594
Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392484
show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667445
growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796831
This paper quantifies the savings obtained from risk pooling with a Regional Stabilization Fund (RSF) for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to estimate the size of a RSF conditional on probabilities of depletion under specific saving-withdrawal rules. Results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605596
This paper argues that better governance practices can reduce the costs, risks and uncertainty of financial intermediation. Our sample covers high-, middle- and low-income countries before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that net interest margins of banks are lower if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978660
alternative stabilization/reform packages as a function of the scope of corruption activities. The framework developed herein is a … basic one in which only the most fundamental questions (such as the effects of anti-corruption government policies on output …, and is able to explain why, even when able to eliminate corruption activity altogether, governments may choose not to do …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398151
Paper discusses the factors that contribute to the spread of corruption as well as the implications of corruption for … markets and for public sector activities. It is argued that corruption can be contained mainly by a scaling down of the public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398409
Why do firms lobby? This paper exploits the unanticipated sequestration of federal budget accounts in March 2013 that reduced the availability of government funds disbursed through procurement contracts to shed light on this question. Following this event, firms with little or no prior exposure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103562
There is increasing recognition that corruption has substantial, adverse effects on economic growth. But if the costs … of corruption are so high, why don’t countries strive to improve their institutions and root out corruption? Why do many … countries appear to be stuck in a vicious circle of widespread corruption and low economic growth, often accompanied by ever …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399729
Government intervention to correct market failures is often accompanied by government failures and corruption. This is …. However, the impact of corruption on the public provision of social services has not been analyzed. This paper reviews the … relevant theoretical models and users’ perceptions of corruption in the public provision of social services. It then provides …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399897