and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts … China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms …

This paper proposes a possible framework for identifying excessive investment. Based on this method, it finds evidence … that some types of investment are becoming excessive in China, particularly in inland provinces. In these regions, private … consumption has on average become more dependent on investment (rather than vice versa) and the impact is relatively short …

based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 …

not its permanent and transitory components separately. The model''s predictions under learning differ substantially from … those under full information and are in line with several empirical findings: (i) the response of investment to a permanent … (iii) saving and investment are highly correlated despite the assumption of capital mobility. Unlike other standard …

This paper considers optimal communication by monetary policy committees in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning … learning about the committee''s decision-making process and policy preferences. When committee members have heterogeneous …

benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. It is shown that the …