This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and … overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three … years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose …

-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this …

Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal …

simulations of natural disasters and various insurance options, we find that sovereign decisions on optimal risk transfer involve … ex-ante preparedness is needed to manage the risks. The paper discusses sovereign experience with disaster insurance as a … key instrument to mitigate the risks; proposes ways to judge the adequacy of insurance; and considers ways to enhance its …

We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is … indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. The prediction model …

structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model …