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Illuminating economic growth
Hu, Yingyao; Yao, Jiaxiong - 2019
This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measures using auxiliary data. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an additional measurement of true GDP per capita, we provide a statistical framework, in which the error in official GDP per capita may depend on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019789
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Nonlinearity between the shadow economy and level of development
Wu, Dong; Schneider, Friedrich - 2019
This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009455
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Nowcasting GDP : a scalable approach using DFM, machine learning and novel data, applied to European economies
Dauphin, Jean-François; Dybczak, Kamil; Maneely, Morgan; … - 2022
This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF's European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169983
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Quality of Government and Living Standards : Adjusting for the Efficiency of Public Spending
Grigoli, Francesco - 2012
It is generally acknowledged that the government’s output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution, adopted by national accounts systems, is to equate output to input costs. However, several studies estimate significant inefficiencies in government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395682
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Aggregation of Economic Indicators Across Countries : Exchange Rate versus PPP Based GDP Weights
Schulze-Gattas, Marianne - 1992
-based GDP data generated by the International Comparison Program and compares aggregations with PPP- and exchange rate-based GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398543
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Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey
Leigh, Daniel - 2002
Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify … indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic … indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401315
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Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
Phillips, Steven - 2001
analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts …. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401615
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An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts
Timmermann, Allan - 2006
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401878
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Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries
Lee, Il Houng - 2010
gaps on output growth, inflation, and net saving rates using panel data for 20 Asian countries for 1980-2008. We find a … significant pass-through of the global monetary gap to domestic monetary gaps, which in turn affect output growth and inflation …, in individual emerging market and developing countries in Asia. Notably, we provide evidence that the global monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397494
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Empirical Modeling of Contagion : A Review of Methodologies
Dungey, Mardi - 2004
The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial market crises. This paper reviews those methods and shows how they are related in a unified framework. A number of extensions are also suggested that allow for multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401432