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Predicting recessions : a new approach for identifying leading indicators and forecast combinations

Baba, Chikako; Kıṣınbay, Turgut - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422676

Is the cycle the trend? : evidence from the views of international forecasters

Bluedorn, John Christopher; Leigh, Daniel - 2018

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011878713

A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations : Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models

Barrionuevo, José M. - 1992

the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series … models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series … model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396084

How well do economists forecast recessions?

An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash - 2018

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326

Predicting Recessions : A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations

Kisinbay, Turgut - 2011

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398165

Labor market dynamics : a hidden Markov approach

Shibata, Ippei - 2019

This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...