Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 456
Cover Image
Hong Kong’s growth synchronization with China and the U.S. : a trend and cycle analysis
He, Dong; Liao, Wei; Wu, Tommy - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281166
Cover Image
The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835
Cover Image
The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles
Cashin, Paul A.; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2012
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United … developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns … and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012671600
Cover Image
Foreign Entanglements : Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries
Bayoumi, Tamim - 2007
VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400326
Cover Image
Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis : What a Difference a Year Makes
Swiston, Andrew - 2010
This paper investigates Central America''s external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008-09 global recession. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402729
Cover Image
Desynchronized : The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Cevik, Serhan - 2011
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397084
Cover Image
The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area
Lombardi, Marco - 2009
The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402234
Cover Image
Desynchronized : the comovement of non-hydrocarbon business cycles in the GCC
Cevik, Serhan - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419744
Cover Image
On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications
Rebucci, Alessandro - 2003
This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403829
Cover Image
China's impact on world commodity markets
Roache, Shaun K. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615208