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This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155058
This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402708
The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well …-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and … economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796190
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388661
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389581
In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667415
unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418077
medium-term business cycle fluctuations in GDP, its components and the unemployment rate. Additionally, it facilitates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011742886
Spain has the most serious and persistent unemployment problem in Europe, with an unemployment rate that reached 24 ….6 percent in early 1994. This paper explores the characteristics of this unemployment problem, its causes, and provides a brief … adjust. The effects of generous unemployment benefits and the large underground economy may explain 6–12 percentage points of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398071
using macroeconomic data on employment, unemployment, participation, and (for Canada) migration and real wages. We find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402300