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Preferences for reforms : endowments vs. beliefs

Duval, Romain; Ji, Yi; Papageorgiou, Chris; Shibata, Ippei - 2022

Are preferences for reforms driven by individuals' own endowments or beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a … difficult and personal interests are at stake. We find that individuals' beliefs matter more than their own endowments and … personal pay-offs. A randomized information treatment confirms that beliefs explain views about reform, but beliefs can change …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170248

Price expectations and the U.S. housing boom

Towbin, Pascal; Weber, Sebastian - 2015

Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, id est expectations about future price developments. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373920

Communication of central bank thinking and inflation dynamics

Tang, Man-Keung; Yu, Xiangrong - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009423219

Following Germany'S Lead : Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policyon the Economy

International Monetary Fund - 2005

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400699

Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations

Knot, Klaas - 1999

This paper investigates international co-movement in bond yields by testing for uncovered interest parity (UIP). Existing work is supplemented by focusing on long instead of short-term interest rates and by employing exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400703

Effect of IMF Structural Adjustment Programson Expectations : The Case of Transition Economies

Imam, Patrick A. - 2007

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents'' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400982

Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market : The Case of Mexico in 1994/1995

Becker, Törbjörn I. - 2000

Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401883

Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals

Müller, Gernot - 2009

The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government spending under a plausible debt-stabilizing policy that links current stimulus to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402389

Foreign Exchange Risk Premium : Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Evidence From Italian Data

Giorgianni, Lorenzo - 1997

This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403290

Assessing Target Zone Credibility : Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS

Svensson, Lars E. O. - 1991

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395834

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