increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose …

develop a macro-financial structural model with two novel features. First, we include idiosyncratic and aggregate risk in a …

We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism … their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for …

This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative …

sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often entail negative feedback e … explore this causal nexus and the e?ects of rare large disasters resulting in capital losses and rising risk premia. Our …

unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk—in terms of the …

Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this paper proposes simple … models and supportive empirical evidence for the causal relations between economic uncertainty and government size in the … open economy setting. Key empirical findings include: (1) a larger government reduces economic uncertainty, and, at the …