We analyze whether there are negative (positive) long-term effects of austerity measures (stimulus measures) on potential output growth. Based on the approach of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) and Fatás and Summers (2016) and using a novel dataset of narratively identified fiscal policy shocks, we...

Preferences over wealth can explain why households do not spend more when real interest rates fall, because they save more than optimal under a standard model. However, little is known about preferences over wealth empirically. We run an intentionally simple lab experiment on intertemporal...

We show that the large elasticity of substitution between capital and labor estimated in the literature on average, 0.9, can be explained by three factors: publication bias, use of aggregated data, and omission of the first-order condition for capital. The mean elasticity conditional on the...

The empirical literature on the impact of corporate taxes on economic growth reaches ambiguous conclusions: corporate tax cuts increase, reduce, or do not significantly affect growth. We apply meta-regression methods to a novel dataset with 441 estimates from 42 primary studies. There is...

We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio and favor a tighter...

Since the fiscal expansion during the Great Recession 2008-2009 and the current European consolidation and austerity measures, the analysis of fiscal multiplier effects is back on the scientific agenda. The number of empirical studies is growing fast, tackling the issue with manifold model...

We apply meta regression analysis to a unique data set of 104 studies on multiplier effects with 1069 reported multipliers in order to derive stylized facts and to quantify the differing effectiveness of the composition of fiscal impulses, adjusted for the interference of study-design...

We show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets, as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with GDP growth via wrong identifications and an omitted variable bias, thus overstating episodes of...

Die Studie untersucht, ob fiskalische Multiplikatoreffekte im Abschwung systematisch größer sind als im Aufschwung. Dazu wird eine Meta-Regressions-Analyse durchgeführt, die einen neuartigen Datensatz von 98 empirischen Studien mit über 1800 Beobachtungen von Multiplikatoreffekten auswertet...

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the...