Showing 1 - 9 of 9
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001278228
Stochastic dominance permits a partial ordering of alternatives (probability distributions on consequences) based only on partial information about a decision maker's utility function. Univariate stochastic dominance has been widely studied and applied, with general agreement on classes of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144457
Almost stochastic dominance allows small violations of stochastic dominance rules to avoid situations where most decision makers prefer one alternative to another but stochastic dominance cannot rank them. While the idea behind almost stochastic dominance is quite promising, it has not caught on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062881
Consider a choice between two random variables, for which only means and variances are known. Is it possible to rank them by putting some constraints on risk preferences? We provide such a ranking by bounding how much marginal utility can change. Such bounds enable us to rank all distributions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848131
We investigate the cost of the opportunity delayed by working on one project with uncertain success rather than searching for a new project. We answer the question: how long should a firm work on a research project with uncertain success before abandoning it if the only alternative is to search...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014129048
When combining forecasts, a simple average of the forecasts performs well, often better than more sophisticated methods. In a prescriptive spirit, we consider some other parsimonious, easy-to-use heuristics for combining interval forecasts and compare their performance with the benchmark...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014036749
Probabilistic forecasts are necessary for robust decisions in the face of uncertainty. The M5 Uncertainty competition required participating teams to forecast nine quantiles for unit sales of various products at various aggregation levels and for different time horizons. This paper evaluates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014084996
This paper suggests a new normative approach for combining beliefs. We call it the evidence-first method. Instead of aggregating credences alone, as the prevailing approaches, we focus instead on eliciting a group's full probability distribution on the basis of the evidence available to its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014084998
Important business, public policy, and personal decisions typically involve multiple objectives, which in turn can be represented by multiple attributes, and uncertainty. Assessing both multiattribute utility and multivariate distributions for the attributes can be challenging. Moreover, big...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088520