Subjective probabilistic judgments are inevitable in many real life domains. A common way to obtain such judgments is to assess fractiles or confidence intervals. However, such judgments tend to be systematically overconfident. For example, 90% confidence intervals for future uncertain...

This paper presents a context dependent valuation (CDV) model of decision making under risk where the valuation of a gamble depends not only on its own probability-outcome structure but also on the other gambles that it is compared with. This descriptive model draws motivation from the...