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Revisiting Business Cycle Synchronisation in the European Union

Afonso, António - 2010

We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135661

The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU

Afonso, António - 2013

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are well explained by macro- and fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086207

On the Time-Varying Relationship between EMU Sovereign Spreads and Their Determinants

Afonso, António - 2013

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999-August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086268

The Role of Fiscal Policies for External Imbalances : Evidence from the European Union

Afonso, António; Coelho, José - 2021

two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current … positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high … budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247757

Euro Area Time-Varying Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Afonso, António; Carvalho, Francisco Tiago - 2021

We assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the 19 Euro area countries, notably during recessions, for the period 1995-2020. We use a time-varying measure of fiscal cyclicality to describe fiscal policy developments. The results suggest that during recessions discretionary fiscal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321855

Public Finances Solvency in the Euro Area : True or False?

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged public debt ratio and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077368

The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads : An Event Study from the EMU

Afonso, António; Jalles, João Tovar; Kazemi, Mina - 2019

We assess the impact of announcements corresponding to different fiscal and monetary policy measures on the 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to Germany) of the 10 EMU countries during the period 01:1999 - 07:2016. Implementing pooled and country-fixed effects OLS regressions, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014108277

Twin Deficits Through the Looking Glass : Time-Varying Analysis in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Coelho, José - 2022

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307056

The Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises and Fiscal Sustainability Regimes in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn’s (1998) approach through Schlicht’s (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346577

The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal

Afonso, António - 2012

This study aims at explaining the deviation between the budget balance ratio forecasts and the outcomes in the Portuguese official forecasts and in the European Commission (EC) vintage forecasts. Therefore, we used data from the EC for the period 1969-2011 and also the Portuguese official...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097457