This study aims at explaining the deviation between the budget balance ratio forecasts and the outcomes in the Portuguese official forecasts and in the European Commission (EC) vintage forecasts. Therefore, we used data from the EC for the period 1969-2011 and also the Portuguese official...

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are well explained by macro- and fiscal...

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999-August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant...

In this report we update the quantitative analysis of the PEPP and PSPP conduct and analyze whether reinvestments are actually made in accordance to these claims. In prior versions of our report, we have detected patterns in the net purchases under PEPP and PSPP, which suggested systematic and...

The ECB Council has to take a decision on the future of its asset purchase programmes as the monetary crisis support that was appropriate in the early phase of the pandemic needs to be adjusted to new circumstances. The changing environment is characterized by an advanced recovery from the...

In this analysis, we investigate ECB communication by analyzing more than 3,800 speeches from 1999 until 2022. The study measures the attention which ECB Council members pay to various implicit and explicit monetary policy objectives. While price stability, according to the Maastricht Treaty, is...

Since March 2020, the Eurosystem has been purchasing government bonds under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The PEPP was set up as a non-standard policy measure to encounter the economic and financial consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and is an additional program to the...