We use sovereign debt rating estimations from Afonso, Gomes and Rother (2009, 2010) for Fitch, Moody's, and Standard & Poor's, to assess to what extent the recent fiscal imbalances are being reflected on the sovereign debt notations. We use macro and fiscal data up to 2009, and macro and fiscal...

This study aims at explaining the deviation between the budget balance ratio forecasts and the outcomes in the Portuguese official forecasts and in the European Commission (EC) vintage forecasts. Therefore, we used data from the EC for the period 1969-2011 and also the Portuguese official...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries, over the period 1970-2010, using unit root and cointegration analysis, both country and panel based, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results notably show: lack of cointegration – absence of sustainability – between...

We use a panel of developed and emerging countries for the period 1970-2008 to assess how fiscal policy volatility and financial crises affect growth. We find that economic growth is lower in the presence of more volatile fiscal policy. Moreover, with a financial crisis government spending is...