We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption uctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy...

We develop a Keynesian cross analysis with a dynamic optimization setting that explains long-run stagnation caused by aggregate demand deficiency. We show that an increase in government purchases boosts GDP through a multiplier process, but the implication is quite different from the...

We propose a microeconomic foundation of the multiplier effect and that of the consumption function using a dynamic optimization model that explains a shortage of aggregate demand and unemployment. We show that government purchases boost aggregate demand through a multiplier-like process but...

External capital inflow on a massive scale into the emerging market economies is a very significant phenomenon of recent years. Making distinctions between direct investment, real and financial, and portfolio investment and incorporating crowding in or crowding out effects we derive some results...

We consider a dynamic macroeconomic model with households that regard relative affluence as social status. The measure of relative affluence can be the ratio to, or the difference from, the social average. The two specifications lead to quite different results: with the ratio specification full...

This paper develops an overlapping-generations model with nominal wage rigidities and examines the welfare effects of debt policy when unemployment exists. Issues of public debt stimulate aggregate consumption demand and create employment. Future generations then face both increased wage incomes...

We consider three objects of people's status preference, consumption, physical capital holding and money holding, and show that an economy grows or stagnates depending on which object people most seriously take as status. If the main object of status preference is consumption, a steady state...

The Keynesian multiplier effect is reinterpreted and several issues that may have misled assessments of the effect of fiscal spending are discussed. It is shown that even in the textbook Keynesian framework some transfer policy 'reduces' aggregate demand and that public works spending may...

Although the Keynesian multiplier effect of public works is criticized for lack of a microeconomic foundation, it is still taught in most undergraduate courses and believed to be useful for policy makers. However, it has a serious fallacy even if we accept the consumption function. This note...

We present a dynamic and monetary model that consistently explains such various phenomena as unemployment, deflation, zero nominal interest rates and excess reserves held by commercial banks. These phenomena are commonly observed during the Great Depression in the United States, the recent...