Ashiya, M.; Doi, T. - Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), Osaka … - 1999
Suppose competent economists obtain common information on business forecasts, and incompetent economists obtain … independent information. If no one knows who is able, young economists mimic others because a forecast different from others … indicated inability when it proves wrong. An older economist, however, can infer his ability from past information. Those who …