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interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052699
Prior to 2020, the Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic shock to the United States economy in generations. Millions lost jobs and homes. At its peak, one in ten workers who wanted a job could not find one. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by more than it had since the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251540
This paper provides a model of "social hysteresis" whereby long, deep recessions demotivate workers and thereby lead them to change their work ethic. In switching from a pro-work to an anti-work identity, their incentives to seek and retain work fall and consequently their employment chances...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080876
We document that fluctuations in part-time employment play a major role in movements in hours per worker, especially during cyclical swings in the labor market. Building on this result, we propose a novel representation of the intensive margin based on a stock-flow framework. The evolution of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995588
role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is … significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further … observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110186
unemployment at large firms are generally found to be more cyclical. However, this stylised fact disappears when the composition of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135186
participation. A model that is calibrated to replicate the variability of unemployment and participation, and the negative … correlation of unemployment and GDP, implies an aggregate labor supply elasticity along the extensive margin of around 0.3 for men …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119024
Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate … procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a … variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780475
We document substantial heterogeneity in occupational employment dynamics in response to government spending shocks. Employment rises most strongly in service, sales, and office ("pink-collar") occupations. By contrast, employment in blue-collar occupations is hardly affected by fiscal stimulus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965027
using the micro-data, this paper shows that this state of non-searching unemployment or discouragement has increased more … some of the jobless with considerable movements between the two categories of unemployment. These findings from the first … unemployment, which includes discouraged workers. In response to these labour market challenges, the government should further …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118055