-ownership rate in a U.S. state are a precursor to eventual sharp rises in unemployment in that state. The elasticity exceeds unity: a … unemployment rate. What mechanisms might explain this? We provide evidence that rises in home-ownership are associated with three …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …