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affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both … households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously … provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353363
In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating … stabilize price movements in the flexible price sector. Also, in the presence of financial frictions, stabilizing core inflation … frictions a welfare-maximizing central bank should adopt flexible headline inflation targeting a target based on headline rather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139035
In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906482
Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764650
An important advance in the study of reference-dependent preferences is the discipline provided by coherent accounts of reference point formation. Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) provide such discipline by positing a reference point grounded in rational expectations. We examine the predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043666
skilled workers being more complementary to capital than substitutable unskilled workers are (CSC channel). Strict inflation … introduce a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and aggregate demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919514
Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic discounting, small positive rates of inflation can be optimal. In … our baseline calibration, the optimal rate of inflation is 2.1% and remains positive across a wide range of calibrations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125143
Laboratory experiments have become a wide-spread tool in economic research. Yet, there is still doubt about how well the results from lab experiments generalize to other settings. In this paper, we investigate the self-selection process of potential subjects into the subject pool. We alter the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082138
Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013325071
state contingent inflation taxes/subsidies to smooth those rents. Hence, in the optimal Ramsey plan, inflation deviates from … zero and the optimal volatility of inflation is an increasing function of firing costs. The optimal rule should react to … employment alongside inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157529