We propose a new model-selection algorithm for Regression Discontinuity Design, Regression Kink Design, and related IV estimators. Candidate models are assessed within a 'placebo zone' of the running variable, where the true effects are known to be zero. The approach yields an optimal...

When investing in research and development (R&D), institutions must decide whether to take a top-down approach – soliciting a particular technology – or a bottom-up approach in which innovators suggest ideas. This paper examines a reform to the U.S. Air Force Small Business Innovation...

The possible negative consequences of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have given rise to calls for public policy to ensure that it is safe, and to prevent improper use and misuse. Human-centered AI (HCAI) draws on ethical principles and puts forth actionable guidelines in this regard. So far...

Economic theory predicts that military conscription is associated with static inefficiencies as well as with dynamic distortions of the accumulation of human and physical capital. Relative to an economy with an all-volunteer force, output levels and growth rates should be lower in countries that...

An arms race for an artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be detrimental for and even pose an existential threat to humanity if it results in an unfriendly AGI. In this paper an all-pay contest model is developed to derive implications for public policy to avoid such an outcome. It is...

We investigate the relationship between the time politicians stay in office and the functioning of public procurement. To this purpose, we collect a data set on the Italian municipal governments and all the procurement auctions they administered between 2000 and 2005. Identification is achieved...

We use panel data on Mexican manufacturing plants to study the connection between plants´responses to changes in the economic environment and their contributions to aggregateproductivity growth in the period following the implementation of the North American TradeAgreement (NAFTA)...

This paper empirically analyzes whether the character-based approach, which is based onthe personality structure and the human capital of business founders, allows prediction ofentrepreneurial success...

In light of nonstationary search theory (van den Berg, 1990), this paper estimates the effectsof benefit entitlement periods and the size of unemployment benefits on unemploymentdurations and post-unemployment earnings in West Germany...

We analyze child mortality in Vietnam focusing on gender aspects. Contrary to several other countries in the region, mortality rates for boys are substantially larger than for girls. A large rural-urban mortality difference exists, but much more so for boys than for girls. A higher education...