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This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881
This paper examines fiscal policy without commitment and the effects of conditional bailout loans. The government relies on distortionary taxation and decides between full debt repayment and costly default. It tends to overborrow due to myopia, which induces default to be a relevant policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071428
We construct a model of offshoring with externalities and firm heterogeneity. Due to the presence of externalities, temporary shocks like the Y2K problem can have permanent effects, i.e., they can permanently raise the extent of offshoring in an industry. Also, the initial advantage of a country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049472
shock. Third, we present evidence coherent with the idea that more leveraged sectors experience larger employment volatility … in normal times deep capital markets lead to tight labor markets. After an adverse liquidity shock, firms that rely much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099747
We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250247
against lost household earnings by increasing labour supply. We find that both own and partner responses to the shock vary … worker effect' when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not … dissolution also differ according to the gender of those affected: for women below 45, but not men, exposure to the trade shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351480
This paper examines the welfare loss of import restrictions on bananas in Australia and whether the import restrictions have turned into a particular form of export promotion. We set up a model in which there is free domestic entry, with banana producers accepting losses in normal years, off-set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057905
This paper studies the effect of two labor market institutions, unemployment insurance (UI) and job search assistance (JSA), on the output cost and welfare cost of recessions. The paper develops a tractable incomplete-market model with search unemployment, skill depreciation during unemployment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966064
Debt-to-GDP ratios have grown to unprecedented levels in many industrialized economies. This requires disciplined consolidation efforts which are, however, supposed to come now at the wrong time with the economic recovery being fragile. Against this background, we call for a global debt brake...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067052
The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001855